Monday, February 25, 2008


Coal is zoom zoom zoooming. Which stocks have more to run?


Ascending triangle, breakout above 55 would give it new all time highs. Need increase in volume!


Broke out above the 40 level, I would wait for a test of the 20 DMA before getting in.


Testing strong resistance at 105. Breakout with high volume will lead to new highs.


This one just broke into new highs. The great thing about this stock is that it has been going sideways for a few days now and is very close to its 20 DMA. Either a pullback to 55 would make an attractive buy or blast to new highs on higher volume.


Moving sideways right at the new highs. Previous patterns suggest that there will be a pullback before we proceed to new highs. A pullback to 20 DMA or even lower would provide ideal entry.


This has run up straight for a month and is very extended. There is no support and no resistance so I have no clue what to do without a pullback to the 20 DMA.

TNH breakout

POT, MON, MOS, TRA and a lot of other ag stocks are at our near their all time highs, TNH has some catching up to do.

Disclosure, I own the shares.

Sunday, February 24, 2008


Lets look at a few china stocks.


Aluminum has had a huge run last week. The stock is up something like 30% in the week. Since it is at a round number resistance of 50, I would be waiting for a pullback to the $45 area to buy some.


This is now trading in a range between 70 and 80. I would be a buyer at 70 with a close stop at 69. If this stock manages to break out of 80 there could be a temporary pullback before it continues its move up.


CMED is in a very nice uptrend with the bottom trend line being the 100 DMA. Right now it is trading at the higher end of the trend, so a pull back to the 100 DMA would provide a great entry point, around 48.


PTR is in a pretty bad downtrend. It is down about 50% from its highs and is trading within the 125 and 160 range. More consolidation is needed for this stock to form a base. I would be a buyer at 140 or at a breakout of 160.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008


Before open
02/20/2008, RIG Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 2.58 vs 2.93, Revenue: 2190.13 vs 1186.0
02/20/2008, ANW Estimate for 03/2008 EPS: 0.3 vs 0.16, Revenue: 540.5 vs 214.0
02/20/2008, STP Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.35 vs 0.2, Revenue: 414.28 vs 218.0
02/20/2008, GRMN Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 1.11 vs 0.82, Revenue: 1033.52 vs 611.0

After close
02/20/2008, PRGN Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.25 vs 0.0, Revenue: 23.28 vs 0.0
02/20/2008, TEX Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 1.4 vs 0.97, Revenue: 2356.81 vs 2030.0
02/20/2008, AEM Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.24 vs 0.34, Revenue: 127.5 vs 145.0
02/20/2008, OII Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.82 vs 0.54, Revenue: 448.09 vs 342.0

Tomorrow - before open
02/21/2008, ABX Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.54 vs 0.11, Revenue: 2007.35 vs 1354.0
02/21/2008, NM Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.29 vs -0.09, Revenue: 164.97 vs 53.0

EWZ, PSQ update

This combination has continued to work.

4.5% gain in 10 days.
9% gain in 1 month.
9 % gain in 4 months.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Agriculture Earnings Update


EPS: .66 vs .64 expected
Revenue: 570 vs 539 expected
Reaction -5%

TRA is standing at its 100 DMA. With a weaker market this stock can take a huge hit. I would short some now, short more when it break the 38 level.


Profit: US$1.11 billion vs US$1 billion expected.
Revenue: US$9.24 billion
Reaction: -.5%

SYT is also close to the 100 DMA. It is forming a h&s formation. However, the reaction to earnings was not that bad. This stock will need to break the 100 DMA at around 47 to be shortable.


EPS: 1.82 vs 1.54 expected
Revenue: 14 billion vs 11.8 billion expected
Reaction: -9%

The stock is right at the 100 DMA like the other two. With a huge downward reaction today, this stock seems to have the most potential to be shorted. Potential support exists at 102.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Holy Grail - SPY

Thanks to The Impatient Trader for his previous post about the Holy Grail setup. I actually used it today to make good money on SPY put options. I only caught the second test of the 100 minute moving average, but nonetheless the options multiplied my return by a great deal.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Fincials Gone Wild

Financials have ran up so much that they have run out of steam. Lets take a look at the S&P financials.

We could very easily test the new lows.
I managed to make some money today shorting Capital One Finance, it looks like it has more room for downside.

If you short now, you can easily cover some at 45, then at 42 before it possibly finds support at 40.

Agriculture Earnings

There are 4 agriculture stocks releasing earnings this Thursday. I want to take a look at them.

UPDATE: I guess AGU isn't really reporting earnings on Thursday. The best estimate I have is from 7-Feb-08 - 14-Feb-08

Agrium - produces and markets agricultural nutrients, industrial products, and specialty fertilizers worldwide, as well as involves in the retail supply of agricultural products and services in North and South Americas.

PE: 40
2007 PE: 21.2
2008 PE: 14.11

EPS estimate: 0.87, vs -0.47 last year
Revenue estimate: 1220.23 vs 899.0 last year

Wow, look at that expected growth. Also, almost all the analysts following it have an outperform rating on it. Now lets look at the chart.

Unfortunately, it is not close to any support, but I suppose that does not matter with an earnings release. The only significant thing I see is a possible head and shoulder formation that would complete with a sell off after earnings.

Terra Industries - engages in the production and marketing of nitrogen and methanol products for agricultural and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
engages in the production and marketing of nitrogen and methanol products for agricultural and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

PE: 32
2007 PE: 17.8
2008 PE: 10.66

EPS Estimate: 0.64 vs 0.1 last year
Revenue Estimate: 539.0 vs 450.0 last year

I am not sure if the revenue estimate is accurate since it is from one analyst, but the EPS grow is phenomenal. The analyst have high ratings on this stock as well.

The chart looks very similar to AGU

Syngenta - an agribusiness company, operates in crop protection and seeds businesses. It operates in three segments: Crop Protection, Seeds, and Plant Science.

PE: 39
2007 PE: 23.6
2008 PE: 20.8

EPS Estimate: 2.26 vs -4.8 last year
Revenue Estimate: 2695.0 vs 2718.0 last year

They are based in Switzerland so they report only twice a year. I am not sure how accurate any of the numbers are since there are very few analysts covering the stock. Bear Stearns just initiated on this stock with an "Outperform" rating, however LEH, GS and UBS have neutral ratings on it.

Similar looking chart.

Bunge - engages in the agriculture and food business. It operates in three segments: Agribusiness, Fertilizer, and Food Products.

PE: 20
2007 PE: 21.6
2008 PE: 18.3

EPS Estimate: 1.49 vs 2.09
Revenue Estimate: 11939.1 vs 7683.0

Thats some nice growth. Most analysts have a neutral rating on it.

The stock is very close to its 52 week high, so a bad earnings could bring it down pretty hard.

Monday, February 4, 2008

EWZ, short QQQQ update

Here is an update for the last 5 trading days.

50/50% allocation gives a 2% gain in 5 days.

Last 3 months:

About 6% gain in the last 3 months.

If you buy on dips and sell on rallies, you could improve your results.

I have been thinking that it might be more beneficial to short the Russell 2000 index since that has run up the most recently. For ultra short: TWA will give you good results.