Thursday, September 24, 2009

Finding New Intraday Highs/Lows

Here is tradestation code to find stocks that are making consistent HOD and LOD. Use this in RadarScreen.

vars: highCount(0), lowCount(0), length(0), plotValue(0), highestHigh(0), lowestLow(10000);

If Date <> Date[1] then begin
highCount = 0;
lowCount = 0;
length = 0;
highestHigh = 0;
lowestLow = 10000;
end;

if High > highestHigh then begin
highCount = highCount + 1;
highestHigh = high;
Alert("New High");
end;

if Low < lowestLow then begin
lowCount = lowCount + 1;
lowestLow = low;
Alert("New Low");
end;

plotValue = highCount - lowCount;
Plot1(plotValue, "H/L Count");

if(plotValue > 0) then
SetPlotColor(1, Green)
else if(plotValue < 0) then
SetPlotColor(1, Red)
else SetPlotColor(1, White);

Few Notes

UNG, at its lowest premium since this whole mess started 2.7%. Oil breaking down like I predicted. Looking to see how coal stocks behave from here, could have topped.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Too Far Too Fast?










And the laggards.



UNG Almost Back to Par

UNG is now trading only at a 3.5% premium. This means it can be traded without the same fear or buying/selling premium. Also it has become CRAZY volatile. Today nat gas was up 10+% while UNG was up 5.8%, making the gap shrink. The question I am waiting to answer is whether nat gas has been extra volatile recently because of this arbitrage opportunity, or if this crazy action will continue. I managed to bank some nice $ going long UNG today, and hopefully will do the same in the future.

There still is a premium in UNG and 3% is still a BIG premium for an "efficient" ETF, so be careful not to hold long term.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Oil - Relative Weakness

It looks like oil has topped out here. Its relative weakness to the indexes is very apparent.


UNG Fund Release More Shares

Based on the news alone, the premium is reduced from 16% to 6%, very nice. Oct 2009 nat gas is up 17% (including after hours trading) today, while UNG was only up 2.5%. Looks like arbitrage play worked out today. Also seems like the premium of GAZ is now 0%, unless I am doing my math wrong... I take that back, according to ETFConnect GAZ has a 11.12% premium.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

UNG

Getting ridiculous.

Premium / (Discount)
12.91%

Friday, August 14, 2009

UNG

Nat gas is very amusing for me (I have given up on trying to long it, thankfully not suffering any losses). Today I noticed how the commodity hit a new low, yet UNG did not. So I pop on over to the UNG website and I see

As of 8/13/2009
Closing Price $12.47
NAV $11.50
Premium / (Discount) 8.43%

So this thing is trading at an 8.5% PREMIUM. If they ever get approval to distribute more shares, watch out!

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Blog

This blog has been pretty pathetic recently. I have been focusing on work and using Stewie's service to trade stocks. Although this makes my life was less stressful, it makes this blog a boring read. I can try to post more ideas here, but only if time permits.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Failed Banks

Forgot there was another week in July! Crazy month!

Nat Gas

Breaking up the previous lower high. chart Might get long tomorrow on pullback.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Friday, July 24, 2009

Nat Gas - Next Leg Lower?

After yesterday's big down day (-5%), it looks like nat gas has set a significant top for now. The question is, is there a next leg lower? Or will nat gas start to trend up for the first time this year? I think a break above yesterday's high will be a signal to get long UNG. Till then we assume that this is headed lower since that is the trend.



I actually think there is a significant chance that nat gas has formed a nice double bottom, but for now I have sold my UNG for a gain, and would not mind re-entering at higher prices.

Monday, July 20, 2009

MAD4e

http://www.sendspace.com/file/ydrg2s

Should have everything that you need.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Chop

Healthy digestion of recent run-up from lows? Or resistance forming for a major leg down? I am more neutral than anything.



On another note, I will probably share the TS functions, indicators and strategies that I have shown here (what I call MAD4e). They are not complicated at all, and their usefulness really depends on the market you are trading, but I will share them soon.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Volatile Tradeable Stocks

Symbol

Description

Last

Volume Avg Dollar

ATR %

Vol (1 Day Ago)

1

SLM

SLM Corp

10.08

255,697,004.40

9.11

14,636,747.00

2

PALM

PalmOne Inc

15.78

330,756,143.76

8.5

74,475,763.00

3

YGE

Yingli Energy Hoding Co Ltd

13.41

101,194,741.20

8.42

5,604,217.00

4

GNW

Genworth Financial Inc

7.09

156,019,660.00

8.4

14,389,386.00

5

ERX

Energy Bull 3x Shares

29.5

153,794,798.08

8.32

5,037,633.00

6

KEY

KeyCorp

5.31

119,526,450.96

8.21

30,338,737.00

7

AKS

AK Steel Holding

19.28

169,622,054.64

8.12

11,392,029.00

8

MEE

Massey Energy

19.44

141,033,664.52

7.84

5,461,711.00

9

LVS

Las Vegas Sands Corp

8.13

136,082,289.63

7.76

27,902,434.00

10

FAS

Financial Bull 3x Shares

9.4

1,249,547,635.76

7.36

134,384,425.00

11

STP

Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd

17.78

113,384,830.56

7.25

6,767,039.00

12

FAZ

Financial Bear 3x Shares

4.59

709,328,711.20

7.2

138,630,484.00

13

TZA

Small Cap Bear 3x Shares

22.45

252,895,906.72

7.2

10,466,111.00

14

HIG

Hartford Finl Svcs Gp

12.02

132,723,399.60

7.15

15,031,236.00

15

TNA

Small Cap Bull 3x Shares

28.13

320,362,354.24

7.15

11,055,625.00

16

FITB

Fifth Third Bancorp

7.02

141,238,379.80

6.94

19,650,988.00

17

LEN

Lennar Corp'A'

9.7

108,297,096.21

6.9

7,949,026.00

18

LNC

Lincoln Natl Corp

17.1

153,652,943.92

6.44

7,072,825.00

19

SRS

UltraShort Real Estate ProShrs

20

387,852,629.40

6.4

20,037,960.00

20

KBH

KB Home

14.07

100,071,689.83

6.36

12,786,104.00

21

IP

Intl Paper

14.53

122,461,979.78

6.32

6,650,327.00

22

RTP

Rio Tintoplc ADS

168.49

147,977,053.85

6.27

869,433.00

23

SNDA

Shanda Interactive Entertainmt

55.6

105,627,641.90

6.21

1,410,937.00

24

M

Macy's Inc

11.94

112,258,650.18

6.19

5,914,576.00

25

F

Ford Motor

5.87

425,132,132.16

6.07

68,303,903.00

26

X

U.S. Steel Corporation

36.95

607,377,327.68

6.04

15,876,208.00

27

JOYG

Joy Global

36.8

104,825,904.00

6.03

2,735,612.00

28

WFT

WeatherFord Intl

20.03

218,097,536.32

6

9,094,575.00

29

AA

Alcoa Inc

10.48

321,192,488.16

5.96

26,382,876.00

30

ATI

Allegheny Technologies

34.7

100,706,776.86

5.95

3,638,092.00

31

DFS

Discover Financial Services

10.7

140,809,759.69

5.92

5,401,766.00

32

NBR

Nabors Industries Inc

15.27

132,981,406.17

5.84

5,551,701.00

33

STI

SunTrust Banks

16.19

110,321,477.85

5.83

11,145,255.00

34

CI

Cigna Corp

24.25

103,110,272.50

5.77

3,506,858.00

35

S

Sprint Nextel Corporation

4.9

125,240,085.84

5.74

46,229,276.00

36

BTU

Peabody Energy

30.78

116,776,775.28

5.72

5,195,045.00

37

RF

Regions Financial Corporation

4.05

129,547,912.78

5.71

30,679,428.00

38

MT

Arcelor Mittal

33.12

146,051,381.04

5.69

7,499,174.00

39

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan Copper&Gold B

50.32

701,418,458.37

5.67

13,812,731.00

40

STX

Seagate Technology

10.3

117,193,293.63

5.6

22,205,920.00

41

BGU

Large Cap Bull 3x Shares

34.62

328,507,848.90

5.47

11,115,417.00

42

DIG

Ultra Oil And Gas ProShares

26.8

161,640,817.80

5.45

6,661,501.00

43

BGZ

Large Cap Bear 3x Shares

34.56

291,657,135.00

5.44

8,429,558.00

44

MRVL

Marvell Technology Group

11.61

119,103,308.13

5.44

16,626,685.00

45

MOS

Mosaic Company

45.94

461,928,170.08

5.41

7,035,161.00

46

AES

AES Corp

11.37

105,276,304.44

5.37

9,040,810.00

47

AET

Aetna Inc

25.37

120,193,606.39

5.37

6,124,701.00

48

BJS

BJ Services

13.68

104,156,442.00

5.36

9,604,324.00

49

COF

Capital One Financial

22.38

146,415,778.80

5.32

7,677,450.00

50

MDRX

Allscripts-Misys Healthcare So

16.45

100,212,657.04

5.28

26,054,380.00