Coal

I will be buying the coals tomorrow, but with very tight stops. These are great stocks to day trade if you know which direction they will go. The oversold ones would be the most optimal plays. The action today was crazy: opened strong, sold off with crude, rallied towards the end, sold off big at the very end. The only way you can make money here is to be very defensive and sell whenever you have any significant profit.

I *hope* an upward trend develops soon, but I would not be willing to lose money if this does not happen. I would rather make a little bit of money and watch a stock run off than to turn my gains into loses. There is absolutely no momentum in stocks in this market.

UPDATE: Oil is now trading higher after hours at 97.5, it closed at 96.6. If it can keep this up tomorrow, coals should be solid.

LULU is unstoppable

+4% today
UPDATE: close +3.3%

Oil on fire - play the coal

I said "Energy feels like it wants to rally." in my previous post. Mid day I thought I was early and maybe later this week. Supply numbers drove crude down. Then later in the day a huge rally. Right now oil is +6.6% and a lot of the coal stocks I mentioned are working back to green. The oversold ones look very tempting here.

One note: gasoline does not seem to be rally that much, but refiners holding up well.

Market tanking again

Coals looked terrific early on. I actually made made some money on ACI and MEE. Then it was all downhill from there. I got stuck in MEE, but made it up shorting WLT. My bearish plays are working out, ENER -9%. Too bad I had a positive lean coming in today. Stupid AIG.

MS

I probably wont trade this, but it looks like a capitulation day in a few financial stocks. I like MS.



Check out the volume. This 'capitulation' could be invalid with higher volume tomorrow. However, I doubt that will happen.

Note To Self

Watch the progress of casinos: LVS, WYNN, MGM and exchanges: CME, NYX, ICE and shippers: EXM, DRYS, GNK, TBSI, PRGN

Possible Bearish Plays

If the market continues downward, here are a few good bearish bets. I must admit, I don't like most of them here, so a few days and they might be ready for a fall. In fact they might even be long plays if the market rallies.

CF


ENER - my favorite, ideal entry at 65-70


FSLR


MON

Beautiful LULU

Bounce off of the 10 DMA, 20 DMA, previous low. I am expecting a move above the 50 DMA. Volume has been light the last 2 days, so with a further move up, expect more of a squeeze. First target should be 23-23.5

FSYS hit the low 46s. I would stay away form it for now.

Coals

Energy feels like it wants to rally. My favorite sector to invest in is coal. Here are a few stocks that are oversold.

ACI

35 has proven to be support, it is now red for the year. I am long.

BTU

45 has proven to be support, it is now in the red. It can easily run up to 55.

CLF

70 is support, this stock has held up very well compared to other coals. A move to 85 looks possible. I am long.

CNX

50 is support. It is red for the year. I want to get long with strength tomorrow.

MEE

35 is support and the low end of the trendline. A run to high 40s is foreseeable.

PCX

30 is support. A move to 40 is very possible.

Update: LULU, WNR, FSYS

FSYS currently -10%
LULU +4%
WNR rallying from the open.

I currently have 0 holdings, but LULU looks interesting around 21 (I will wait for further consolidation).

UPDATE: bought a few shares of LULU @ 21.4, couldn't resist. Stop loss (maybe) at break even.

UPDATE 2:
Stocks ended: LULU +7.7%, WNR +5%, FSYS -5.5%

WNR had a 14% turnaround from open to close.