Market Commentary

Here are the markets I follow and current 'analysis':

S&P (via SPY): chop so far, with downward bias
Nasdaq 100 (via QQQQ): slight strength vs SPY
Financials (via XLF): strongest sector
Energy (via OIH): early weakness, but doing well now, this market can be very volatile
Small Caps (via IWM): chop
Real Estate (via IYR): early weakness, but doing well now, this market can be very volatile

Market Commentary

Shorted this quick bounce. Covering soon, do not want to wait for new lows. This market makes me nervous.

Market Commentary

Market making new lows. Low of the week is not too far away. The trend is done with possibility of chop.

An Attempt to Blog Real Time

I might be making an attempt to blog about the market in real time, commenting about the general market conditions in an attempt to align my trading with the action I see.

Finding New Intraday Highs/Lows

Here is tradestation code to find stocks that are making consistent HOD and LOD. Use this in RadarScreen.

vars: highCount(0), lowCount(0), length(0), plotValue(0), highestHigh(0), lowestLow(10000);

If Date <> Date[1] then begin
highCount = 0;
lowCount = 0;
length = 0;
highestHigh = 0;
lowestLow = 10000;
end;

if High > highestHigh then begin
highCount = highCount + 1;
highestHigh = high;
Alert("New High");
end;

if Low < lowestLow then begin
lowCount = lowCount + 1;
lowestLow = low;
Alert("New Low");
end;

plotValue = highCount - lowCount;
Plot1(plotValue, "H/L Count");

if(plotValue > 0) then
SetPlotColor(1, Green)
else if(plotValue < 0) then
SetPlotColor(1, Red)
else SetPlotColor(1, White);

Few Notes

UNG, at its lowest premium since this whole mess started 2.7%. Oil breaking down like I predicted. Looking to see how coal stocks behave from here, could have topped.

Too Far Too Fast?

And the laggards.

UNG Almost Back to Par

UNG is now trading only at a 3.5% premium. This means it can be traded without the same fear or buying/selling premium. Also it has become CRAZY volatile. Today nat gas was up 10+% while UNG was up 5.8%, making the gap shrink. The question I am waiting to answer is whether nat gas has been extra volatile recently because of this arbitrage opportunity, or if this crazy action will continue. I managed to bank some nice $ going long UNG today, and hopefully will do the same in the future.

There still is a premium in UNG and 3% is still a BIG premium for an "efficient" ETF, so be careful not to hold long term.

Oil - Relative Weakness

It looks like oil has topped out here. Its relative weakness to the indexes is very apparent.

UNG Fund Release More Shares

Based on the news alone, the premium is reduced from 16% to 6%, very nice. Oct 2009 nat gas is up 17% (including after hours trading) today, while UNG was only up 2.5%. Looks like arbitrage play worked out today. Also seems like the premium of GAZ is now 0%, unless I am doing my math wrong... I take that back, according to ETFConnect GAZ has a 11.12% premium.