| TICKER | WEIGHT PCT | ||
| JPM | 9.218056651 | ||
| BAC | 6.510135477 | ||
| WFC | 6.179692435 | ||
| C | 5.123050887 | ||
| USB | 3.634949945 | ||
| GS | 2.955375767 | ||
| CME | 1.973219748 | ||
| BK | 1.920944935 | ||
| AXP | 1.78970732 | ||
| V | 1.620253917 | ||
| PNC | 1.506434474 | ||
| AFL | 1.371868465 | ||
| TRV | 1.315713295 | ||
| STT | 1.288288608 | ||
| SCHW | 1.250596422 | ||
| MER | 1.242658985 | ||
| BBT | 1.133600549 | ||
| SPG | 1.095058279 | ||
| ALL | 1.083789115 | ||
| PRU | 1.029060551 |
Now the chart.
Alright! Fresh all time low. No support! Yay! -64% from the highs. Since the XLF is the sector that is causing all the problems, lets compare it with QQQQ during the dot com bust. It went from 120 to a low of 20, an 83% drop. So by those standards, the bottom should be... 6.5 (ouch). Is that reasonable? It seems like a stretch since the height of the dot come bubble brought about huge valuations for companies, but then again this disaster should also take away huge valuations from banks. I would at least expect continued downside from here, hopefully not straight down like it has been doing lately. Right now the XLF is at the bottom of the trendline, this doesn't mean much since all other indexes have broken their trendlines, but just a thought.
SPY
-43% from the highs. 12.5% away from the from the 2002 low.
Looking at this chart, I think the most probable case is that we bottom BELOW the 2002 levels. Although this recent drop has been VERY VERY quick, it is about the same as the last and final drop before the 2002 bottom. Maybe some hope.
