Short Squeeze

Find your short squeeze stocks and have them handy! When the market started to rally today I went straight to my short squeeze stock, LULU. The stock rallied 10% from its bottom (I managed to get a decent 5% move) in just 1 hour. When you see or feel that the market is finding buyers, step in and buy your short squeeze stock. LULU closed on the highs of the day (even though it closed -3%). Do not buy during the sell-off, wait for the buyers to get aggressive and jump in to your stock. I will try to find some more stocks today and post later, but these will probably be the major stocks I follow and have gone over before.

S&P Fibs

Intraday bar for last bar. It is always good to look at where we have come from.

The Rise and Fall

Chartasm.

Notice how it is quicker to fall back down then it was to rise up. Also, these charts are not all the same. Notice how some have already retraced back to former levels while some look like they have more to go. Also, just because we retraced back to the lows does not mean it cannot go lower.

Rails

So lets see, ags are dead, solars are dead, tech is pretty much dead, coal is dead, steel is dead, oil is dead (and still has a bit to go IMO), refiners are continuing to bleed, shippers are dead, casinos are dead, china is dead. Whats next? Rails! The only problem with these is that they move so slowly (except today!) compared to coals, ags, etc.

KSU - 1 year

Looking at the 1 year chart, we see that KSU looks very oversold. It has fallen below every DMA that I show. This stock does not look like a good short here!

KSU - 5 year

Now, that does not look oversold! In fact it still looks very overbought. I would love to short this on any push up. This is my favorite since the fundamentals look the worst:
Debt to Equity: 1.04, PE: 18, FPE: 13, P/B: 2.0

If you look at any of the rails, they look very oversold after today's action. I will only post 5 year charts to show how they are in fact very overbought longer term.

One more note: take a look at any of the ags, coals, steels to see how far just how far these 'growth' stocks can correct!

I will try to list these in order of my favorite looking by chart + fundamentals. Feel free to stop when you have seen too many charts.

GWR

Debt to Equity: .71, PE: 22.5, FPE: 16, P/B: 2.9

WAB

Debt to Equity: .71, PE: 18, FPE: 14, P/B: 3.7

NSC

Debt to Equity: .65, PE: 22, FPE: 16, P/B: 2.4

CNI

Debt to Equity: .64, PE: 11, FPE: 11, P/B: 2.4

CSX

Debt to Equity: .88, PE: 13, FPE: 10.5, P/B: 3.69, P/B: 2.4

BNI

Debt to Equity: .78, PE: 15.8, FPE: 11.8, P/B: 2.7

UNP

Debt to Equity: .71, PE: 26, FPE: 12, P/B: 2.3

Outlook

Now I hear on CNBC how the market is going down not because of the bail out plan, but because of the prospects of the economy. This is exactly why I am long term bearish. Add overall global slowing to that list.

Ags are dead

MOS earnings released after hours, it is down about 20%.

These charts will look very different tomorrow, but lets see.

MOS

The bottom trendline will be demolished tomorrow.

MON

The bottom trendline will be demolished tomorrow.

POT

The bottom trendline will be demolished tomorrow.

IPI

Close to all time lows!

ENER, FSLR

ENER

I like this for a short, looks tempting at resistance, but it seems to be holding up well. This can't last long!

FSLR

A falling titan.

Many of the solars have already taken a huge hit, CSIQ, WFR, SPWR, LDK, JASO, YGE. So it should only be about time till the 'leaders' in this sector follow. Also, ENER has a gap to fill at 40!

Refiners

The crack spread is taking a hit from its recent highs. This is not good for a the refiners. Again this isn't the actual crack spread, but i use it to show the direction of the spread.

Theses refiners just can't catch a break! Oil goes up, gasoline prices don't keep up; oil comes down, gasoline prices fall even faster.

The refiners look like they are on the brink for further downside.

FTO

Lower low next?

SUN

Looks very bad.

TSO

It is still within its range, but judging by other refiners, it should break down soon. If I was still bullish in this sector, this would be a very nice entry.

WNR

This one still looks somewhat bullish, pulling back to previous support and 50 DMA. But the upward momentum certainly is not there.

Oil is very confusing here. Reports show an increase in gasoline supply and decrease in demand. This is driving gasoline prices down big time, yet oil manages to trade with the market and participates in rallies.

CME, NYX, ICE

Charts are starting to look very bullish.

CME

There is undeniable support at 320. It broke out of its channel, has had a pullback (a little too much), and is now approaching its recent highs. This is my favorite exchange stock by far. Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 2.3


NYX

Broke out of the wedge, pulled back (a little too much) and is now trying to hold above the 10, 20, 40 DMA. Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 2.4

ICE

Broke above 80 once again. This one still needs to heal. My least favorite. Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 1.5

Market

Weird market. I did not think we would hold up so well after that huge sell off yesterday. I am even more cautious on the market now, both long and short. I might update a few charts today, but it is hard to find any trends in this market. I am keeping my trades to very short term, 1-2 hours.