Showing posts with label Agriculture. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Agriculture. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Consolidation in Ags
First CF offers to buy TRA in a stock swap merger. TRA rejects. Now AGU is offering to buy CF at a 30% premium.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Ags still weak
A while ago I noted that ag stocks have been very weak.
POT made a new 52 weak low, ADM was down 4% today and CF is hanging off of its lows and looks like it wants to continue downward. I am surprised how well MON has held up. I really expect that the stock will be another -50% until it approaches any kind of bottom.
POT made a new 52 weak low, ADM was down 4% today and CF is hanging off of its lows and looks like it wants to continue downward. I am surprised how well MON has held up. I really expect that the stock will be another -50% until it approaches any kind of bottom.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Ags are dead
MOS earnings released after hours, it is down about 20%.
These charts will look very different tomorrow, but lets see.
MOS
The bottom trendline will be demolished tomorrow.
MON
The bottom trendline will be demolished tomorrow.
POT
The bottom trendline will be demolished tomorrow.
IPI
Close to all time lows!
These charts will look very different tomorrow, but lets see.
MOS
The bottom trendline will be demolished tomorrow.
MON
The bottom trendline will be demolished tomorrow.
POT
The bottom trendline will be demolished tomorrow.
IPI
Close to all time lows!
Monday, February 25, 2008
TNH breakout
POT, MON, MOS, TRA and a lot of other ag stocks are at our near their all time highs, TNH has some catching up to do.
Disclosure, I own the shares.
Disclosure, I own the shares.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Agriculture Earnings Update
TRA
EPS: .66 vs .64 expected
Revenue: 570 vs 539 expected
Reaction -5%
TRA is standing at its 100 DMA. With a weaker market this stock can take a huge hit. I would short some now, short more when it break the 38 level.
SYT
Profit: US$1.11 billion vs US$1 billion expected.
Revenue: US$9.24 billion
Reaction: -.5%
SYT is also close to the 100 DMA. It is forming a h&s formation. However, the reaction to earnings was not that bad. This stock will need to break the 100 DMA at around 47 to be shortable.
BG
EPS: 1.82 vs 1.54 expected
Revenue: 14 billion vs 11.8 billion expected
Reaction: -9%
The stock is right at the 100 DMA like the other two. With a huge downward reaction today, this stock seems to have the most potential to be shorted. Potential support exists at 102.
EPS: .66 vs .64 expected
Revenue: 570 vs 539 expected
Reaction -5%
TRA is standing at its 100 DMA. With a weaker market this stock can take a huge hit. I would short some now, short more when it break the 38 level.
SYT
Profit: US$1.11 billion vs US$1 billion expected.
Revenue: US$9.24 billion
Reaction: -.5%
SYT is also close to the 100 DMA. It is forming a h&s formation. However, the reaction to earnings was not that bad. This stock will need to break the 100 DMA at around 47 to be shortable.
BG
EPS: 1.82 vs 1.54 expected
Revenue: 14 billion vs 11.8 billion expected
Reaction: -9%
The stock is right at the 100 DMA like the other two. With a huge downward reaction today, this stock seems to have the most potential to be shorted. Potential support exists at 102.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Agriculture Earnings
There are 4 agriculture stocks releasing earnings this Thursday. I want to take a look at them.
UPDATE: I guess AGU isn't really reporting earnings on Thursday. The best estimate I have is from earnings.com 7-Feb-08 - 14-Feb-08
AGU
Agrium - produces and markets agricultural nutrients, industrial products, and specialty fertilizers worldwide, as well as involves in the retail supply of agricultural products and services in North and South Americas.
PE: 40
2007 PE: 21.2
2008 PE: 14.11
EPS estimate: 0.87, vs -0.47 last year
Revenue estimate: 1220.23 vs 899.0 last year
Wow, look at that expected growth. Also, almost all the analysts following it have an outperform rating on it. Now lets look at the chart.
Unfortunately, it is not close to any support, but I suppose that does not matter with an earnings release. The only significant thing I see is a possible head and shoulder formation that would complete with a sell off after earnings.
TRA
Terra Industries - engages in the production and marketing of nitrogen and methanol products for agricultural and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
engages in the production and marketing of nitrogen and methanol products for agricultural and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
PE: 32
2007 PE: 17.8
2008 PE: 10.66
EPS Estimate: 0.64 vs 0.1 last year
Revenue Estimate: 539.0 vs 450.0 last year
I am not sure if the revenue estimate is accurate since it is from one analyst, but the EPS grow is phenomenal. The analyst have high ratings on this stock as well.
The chart looks very similar to AGU
SYT
Syngenta - an agribusiness company, operates in crop protection and seeds businesses. It operates in three segments: Crop Protection, Seeds, and Plant Science.
PE: 39
2007 PE: 23.6
2008 PE: 20.8
EPS Estimate: 2.26 vs -4.8 last year
Revenue Estimate: 2695.0 vs 2718.0 last year
They are based in Switzerland so they report only twice a year. I am not sure how accurate any of the numbers are since there are very few analysts covering the stock. Bear Stearns just initiated on this stock with an "Outperform" rating, however LEH, GS and UBS have neutral ratings on it.
Similar looking chart.
BG
Bunge - engages in the agriculture and food business. It operates in three segments: Agribusiness, Fertilizer, and Food Products.
PE: 20
2007 PE: 21.6
2008 PE: 18.3
EPS Estimate: 1.49 vs 2.09
Revenue Estimate: 11939.1 vs 7683.0
Thats some nice growth. Most analysts have a neutral rating on it.
The stock is very close to its 52 week high, so a bad earnings could bring it down pretty hard.
UPDATE: I guess AGU isn't really reporting earnings on Thursday. The best estimate I have is from earnings.com 7-Feb-08 - 14-Feb-08
AGU
Agrium - produces and markets agricultural nutrients, industrial products, and specialty fertilizers worldwide, as well as involves in the retail supply of agricultural products and services in North and South Americas.
PE: 40
2007 PE: 21.2
2008 PE: 14.11
EPS estimate: 0.87, vs -0.47 last year
Revenue estimate: 1220.23 vs 899.0 last year
Wow, look at that expected growth. Also, almost all the analysts following it have an outperform rating on it. Now lets look at the chart.
Unfortunately, it is not close to any support, but I suppose that does not matter with an earnings release. The only significant thing I see is a possible head and shoulder formation that would complete with a sell off after earnings.
TRA
Terra Industries - engages in the production and marketing of nitrogen and methanol products for agricultural and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
engages in the production and marketing of nitrogen and methanol products for agricultural and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
PE: 32
2007 PE: 17.8
2008 PE: 10.66
EPS Estimate: 0.64 vs 0.1 last year
Revenue Estimate: 539.0 vs 450.0 last year
I am not sure if the revenue estimate is accurate since it is from one analyst, but the EPS grow is phenomenal. The analyst have high ratings on this stock as well.
The chart looks very similar to AGU
SYT
Syngenta - an agribusiness company, operates in crop protection and seeds businesses. It operates in three segments: Crop Protection, Seeds, and Plant Science.
PE: 39
2007 PE: 23.6
2008 PE: 20.8
EPS Estimate: 2.26 vs -4.8 last year
Revenue Estimate: 2695.0 vs 2718.0 last year
They are based in Switzerland so they report only twice a year. I am not sure how accurate any of the numbers are since there are very few analysts covering the stock. Bear Stearns just initiated on this stock with an "Outperform" rating, however LEH, GS and UBS have neutral ratings on it.
Similar looking chart.
BG
Bunge - engages in the agriculture and food business. It operates in three segments: Agribusiness, Fertilizer, and Food Products.
PE: 20
2007 PE: 21.6
2008 PE: 18.3
EPS Estimate: 1.49 vs 2.09
Revenue Estimate: 11939.1 vs 7683.0
Thats some nice growth. Most analysts have a neutral rating on it.
The stock is very close to its 52 week high, so a bad earnings could bring it down pretty hard.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
POT finding support
POT is finding support at the 100 day moving average. Is it time for TEMPORARY reversal in the agriculture stocks?
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
RIG, MDR update
RIG is bullishly holding the 200 day moving average.
MDR is holding the 300 day moving average. If it can make it above the 200 day moving average, I might dabble in the call options.
MDR is holding the 300 day moving average. If it can make it above the 200 day moving average, I might dabble in the call options.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Rig
I bought Rig a while ago and have now come to regret it.
Transocean, Inc. operates as an offshore drilling contractor and a provider of drilling management services worldwide. It contracts drilling rigs, related equipment, and work crews primarily on dayrate basis to drill oil and gas wells with a focus on deepwater and harsh environment drilling services.
So they operate in what is supposed to be the most profitable area of drilling, deepwater drilling. Almost everyone loves this stock, including Cramer. They recently merged with GSF, GlobalSantaFe, which was also a contract driller, giving them bigger stake in the drilling area.
Now lets look at my action and see where I went wrong.
I bought RIG thinking that the selling was overdone and we would reach support very soon at the trendline or at the previous highs of 140. However on the 15th it all came down. That SHOULD have been my signal to sell and possibly go short. Ever since then it has broken the 100 DMA and is approaching the 200 DMA.
My Mistakes:
1. Buying the stock BEFORE the trend was tested.
2. Buying the stock in a weak market, hoping for a bounce.
Now the decision is, what to do with the stock?
Despite all the bad, RIG is still a great company. They report earnings on February 20, when they are expected to earn 2.55. Oil is still high, and exploration should still be growing. The stock managed to make it above its 200 DMA once again today despite overall market weakness. If the market manages to have a recovery soon, I will be able to unload half my position so as to minimize my overall long position in the market.
Next post will be about another oil company MDR.
Transocean, Inc. operates as an offshore drilling contractor and a provider of drilling management services worldwide. It contracts drilling rigs, related equipment, and work crews primarily on dayrate basis to drill oil and gas wells with a focus on deepwater and harsh environment drilling services.
So they operate in what is supposed to be the most profitable area of drilling, deepwater drilling. Almost everyone loves this stock, including Cramer. They recently merged with GSF, GlobalSantaFe, which was also a contract driller, giving them bigger stake in the drilling area.
Now lets look at my action and see where I went wrong.
I bought RIG thinking that the selling was overdone and we would reach support very soon at the trendline or at the previous highs of 140. However on the 15th it all came down. That SHOULD have been my signal to sell and possibly go short. Ever since then it has broken the 100 DMA and is approaching the 200 DMA.
My Mistakes:
1. Buying the stock BEFORE the trend was tested.
2. Buying the stock in a weak market, hoping for a bounce.
Now the decision is, what to do with the stock?
Despite all the bad, RIG is still a great company. They report earnings on February 20, when they are expected to earn 2.55. Oil is still high, and exploration should still be growing. The stock managed to make it above its 200 DMA once again today despite overall market weakness. If the market manages to have a recovery soon, I will be able to unload half my position so as to minimize my overall long position in the market.
Next post will be about another oil company MDR.
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