Slow

I have been slow to get back into gear. I have just opened an account at TradeStation and am getting used to the platform. I am also learning EasyLangauge so that I can see what kind of automated trades I can come up with.

Ag stocks have been taking a huge beating recently. MON had good earnings and popped big time only to be faded back down and closed the gap today. Do or die for it, I say die after. POT, MOS, CF, ADM are all giving back their gains at 8%+ a day.

The parabolic stock, EBS looks like it broke down on some news while LOPE seems to be holding up very well.

Take a look at APOL for further downside, courtesy of Citron Research. I have yet to read the report, but I shorted the stock in a paper account as soon as I got the email notification and made 4 points on it. I have also browsed through the history of the site, and they have made some very nice calls. Not all the calls are profitable, but most are. Some stocks continue to move up after the report is put out, but eventually they crater, APOL might be like that, so always have your stops.

Panic of 1873

I have always been interested in history. Here is a comparison of our time to that of the 1873 panic. The Real Great Depression, here is the wikipedia article Panic of 1873.

A side note, the agriculture stocks continue to be beaten to a pulp. MON is at or close to a 52-week closing low. POT, CF, MOS all look like death. ADM is the only one not close to its 52 week low, and I believe that will not remain true for long. It is trading inside of a rising wedge, but it is also above most of its moving averages, which is bullish.

All the rail stocks I mentioned are very close to their 52 week lows, one of the last sectors to have succumbed to this bear market.

The indexes seem to be still range bound.

If you want to find bullish stocks, check out bespoke's list here.

EBS looks like an interesting short candidate, since it has started to move up parabolicly. But since it is a biopharm company, holding it overnight can be lethal. Also, just because it has started to move up parabolic does not mean it will stop, so picking a top can always be dangerous.

LOPE looks like a great IPO, closed today at a 52 week closing high.

Have a good holiday!

ADM

It is becoming harder and harder for it to make new highs. Looks like a rounded top to me.

Stop at 28.

Update: added line to show decreasing in volume on recent rise up.

Ags still weak

A while ago I noted that ag stocks have been very weak.

POT made a new 52 weak low, ADM was down 4% today and CF is hanging off of its lows and looks like it wants to continue downward. I am surprised how well MON has held up. I really expect that the stock will be another -50% until it approaches any kind of bottom.

Weak Ags

Weak Ags: POT -1%, CF -1%, TRA +0%, MON +4%, SQM +5%
Strong(er) ags: IPI +10%, OS +9%, ADM +7.5%

This sector could not sustain a broad rally during today's bullish session. Makes me think that they have much lower to go. ADM has almost doubled from its bottom, it is looking rip for a short. However, I will wait for signs of weakness to show before I short.


Ideal short entry would be a break above 27, followed by a rejection.