Update

Crack spreads fell today. I thought they would surely rise today. Seeing crude below 100, and hearing about $5 gas, I thought it might even go higher today!


Falling significantly from the highs, but still looks good. Overall, I expect oil stocks to firm up this week.

WNR, pulling back, gave back most of its gaves form friday.

It is right at the 10 DMA. Further pullback followed by strength would make this a buy.

FTO, jumps right back into its former range.

I think this should be day traded to both side with the huge moves it has. It looks bearish here.

TSO, closes below 16, very bad.


VLO

With exposure to hurricane Ike, this look very bearish.

Pair trade? Long TSO short VLO.

LULU

Pulls back to the 20 level. Buy once strength is shown on the intraday level. Could be challenging in this market.

ICE and NYX looking very bearish.

A look at some refiners

I will be updating this post with some info about refiners.

WNR
If you did not already know, WNR has by far the most debt. Debt to equity: 2.09
They do not have any refineries near hurricane Ike's path, locations.
Nor do they seem to have any significant retail locations there.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 7.8

VLO
They do not have much debt. Debt to equity: 0.35
They have refineries around the hurricane areas, locations.
They also have over 150 retail locations in Houston and other cities. Not a good sign.
The news on it does not look good either.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 1.8

TSO
They have some debt. Debt to equity: 0.6
No refining exposure to hurricane areas, locations.
And no retail stores in Texas.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.7

HOC
Some debt. Debt to equity: 0.7
No refining exposure to hurricane, locations.
No retail stores, but their corporate headquarters is located in Dallas, Texas. Shouldn't be a big deal.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.8

FTO
Little debt. Debt to equity: .14
No refining exposure to hurricane, locations.
Some retail stores in Houston area.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.1

Refiners, crack spread

I can't seem to find a good source for the crack spread. So I decided to plot my own.

First a look at USO, a proxy for oil.

Notice that oil is back at the March levels, with a peak in July.

Now a look at UGA, a proxy for gasoline.

We are again, back to the March levels, with a peak in July.

Here is the chart of the UGA (proxy for gasoline) - USO (proxy for oil), which should be a good approximate for the difference in gasoline and crude oil (aka the crack spread).

You can see the pain the refiners were taking as oil peaked in July. However, we are now back to March levels with momentum to the upside. Can the refiners recover from the big hit they took during the last few months?

Now a look at the refiners, which have still been struggling.

WNR is right at a recent high, which could act support. It is also right above the 20 and 50 DMA. This can provide a great buying opportunity if refiners come into favor.

Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 7.8 Very Nice.

TSO is much weaker. It is testing a recent lower low. If you buy here, at least the stop will be easy to set.

Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.7 Nice.

FTO is still consolidating and trying to form some support. This is very healthy.

Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.1 Nice.