Update

Crack spreads fell today. I thought they would surely rise today. Seeing crude below 100, and hearing about $5 gas, I thought it might even go higher today!


Falling significantly from the highs, but still looks good. Overall, I expect oil stocks to firm up this week.

WNR, pulling back, gave back most of its gaves form friday.

It is right at the 10 DMA. Further pullback followed by strength would make this a buy.

FTO, jumps right back into its former range.

I think this should be day traded to both side with the huge moves it has. It looks bearish here.

TSO, closes below 16, very bad.


VLO

With exposure to hurricane Ike, this look very bearish.

Pair trade? Long TSO short VLO.

LULU

Pulls back to the 20 level. Buy once strength is shown on the intraday level. Could be challenging in this market.

ICE and NYX looking very bearish.

FSYS

FSYS short still looks very good, if the bottom gives way in this stock, then look out!


A closer look. And we see that the first target is the 46-48 ranges.


I would play this very tight. It is still in a longer term uptrend, so if this trade goes against you, bail out ASAP.

LULU

Traded 2.1 million shares on Friday. If we assume 1 million were covering short and using our previous calculated number,

11.8 - 1 = 10.8 million shares left to be covered.
New Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 8

Bearish/Bullish

CF


No charts but also bearish on MON, POT, CLF, COF, FSLR, ENER, AGU, TBSI, CSIQ, WYNN


Bullish: WNR, TSO, FTU, maybe LULU on a pullback, still waiting for exchanges to bottom.

FSYS

Bearish on FSYS.



With a stop at 54. Keep it tight.

A look at some refiners

I will be updating this post with some info about refiners.

WNR
If you did not already know, WNR has by far the most debt. Debt to equity: 2.09
They do not have any refineries near hurricane Ike's path, locations.
Nor do they seem to have any significant retail locations there.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 7.8

VLO
They do not have much debt. Debt to equity: 0.35
They have refineries around the hurricane areas, locations.
They also have over 150 retail locations in Houston and other cities. Not a good sign.
The news on it does not look good either.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 1.8

TSO
They have some debt. Debt to equity: 0.6
No refining exposure to hurricane areas, locations.
And no retail stores in Texas.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.7

HOC
Some debt. Debt to equity: 0.7
No refining exposure to hurricane, locations.
No retail stores, but their corporate headquarters is located in Dallas, Texas. Shouldn't be a big deal.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.8

FTO
Little debt. Debt to equity: .14
No refining exposure to hurricane, locations.
Some retail stores in Houston area.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.1

The Crack Widens

Honestly, I can't figure out the actual crack for the life of me. It is supposed to be traded on NYMEX here but I can't actually get real numbers! So instead I just use UGA and USO with magic multipliers, which should be a good enough approximate. I am not sure how far up this will go, especially with the hurricanes here. Will gasoline go up more than crude?

WNR +16%
FTO +7%
TSO +6%

Other Refiners:
HOC +13%
VLO +9%
DK +13%

I will probably do a review of the refiners over the weekend.

Refiners, look at that crack!

Crack spreads moving up big today.


WNR bounced right off of support +6%.
FTO breaking out +13%
TSO firming up +9%

Buy any dips. But most importantly, manage risk. These are still very risky plays.

LULU Update

LULU is currently +10% (update: ended +14%)
Short Percent of Float 74.35 %
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 16.2

This squeeze can last a while!

14,869,900 share short
1.2 million avg volume

4.3 million shares traded, lets assume that 3 million were shorts covering (thats huge).
That leaves 11.8 million shares left to be covered.
New Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 9.8

Reuters on Earnings
AP on Earnings

FSYS

Out of FSYS for a small loss. Will see how it acts rest of today and tomorrow.