Wednesday, February 25, 2009


A few stocks that continue to make new closing lows.

APA: CLOSE=59.7, 52WEEKLOW=59.5
BUCY: CLOSE=12.84, 52WEEKLOW=12.84
CSX: CLOSE=25.38, 52WEEKLOW=24.94
DE: CLOSE=27.01, 52WEEKLOW=26.99
DVN: CLOSE=45.29, 52WEEKLOW=45.29
LOW: CLOSE=15.37, 52WEEKLOW=15.09
LUV: CLOSE=6.07, 52WEEKLOW=6.07
MSFT: CLOSE=16.96, 52WEEKLOW=16.96
TRN: CLOSE=7.68, 52WEEKLOW=7.68
UNG: CLOSE=16.61, 52WEEKLOW=16.56
WYNN: CLOSE=21.75, 52WEEKLOW=21.75
X: CLOSE=20.92, 52WEEKLOW=20.92

Consolidation in Ags

First CF offers to buy TRA in a stock swap merger. TRA rejects. Now AGU is offering to buy CF at a 30% premium.

Thursday, February 19, 2009


I do not know why Fast Money is so bullish on MA and V. As credit card companies like COF and JPM take a hit, it is only time till credit and usage of credit cards takes a hit.

XLF is at 7.6, it is getting closer and closer to my bottom guess of 6.5. The estimate is based on comparing the QQQQ during the dot com bust to the XLF. An 84% drop from the highs. XLF peaked at 38, an 80% drop is 7.6, an 84% drop is 6.08. Feels like we are getting close.

The Mcclean oscillator (check oscillators on the left) is oversold while other oscialltors are slightly oversold. Don't be caught short in the bounce.

There is some crazy action in the education stocks ESI and APOL.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Monthly Failed Banks

Highest failures this month and we are only half way done.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009


UGA up 2+% today while crude is down, further increase crack spread. GLD broke out.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009


Put/Call ratio no longer showing an overbought condition. GLD, looking like it could break to the upside.

Crack Spread

I used to post a chart showing an approximate to crack spread. Here it is again

The formula is simply 1.8*UGA - USO. I chose this formula because it correctly seems to show times when the crack spread has gone negative. The important aspect of the chart is not to show you the actual crack spread, but to show you the relative relation and direction of the crack spread.

I would not be a bull of refiners here since they have already rallied with the crack spread. TSO, WNR and others have doubled from the bottom! In fact, it could be topping out soon.

Monday, February 9, 2009

GLD update

So far, so good.

Friday, February 6, 2009


After this big rally, the put/call ratio is dropping even further. It is wise to be less bullish. All other indicators are more neutral, so it is hard to be straight out bearish.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Put/Call Ratio

I saw 2 posts about its current value. Added it to my useful oscillators on the left.

But it is worth noting that recent dips in the Put/Call ratio have not produced very strong selloffs, so always keep an open mind.

Monday, February 2, 2009


I do not think anything will last in this market, including gold.

Here are some volatile miners: ABX, AEM, NEM, AUY, AU
or DZZ if you want to deal with absurd gaps.