Thursday, September 11, 2008
FSYS
FSYS is testing its recent downtrend, will it hold? If it gets rejected here that would be very good bearish signal. Today, FSYS started in the red and fought its way all the way to +6.5%, I am currently short the stock with a stop at todays high, 53.5. But the better play is to wait and see how it acts the rest of today and tomorrow before shorting. If this stock has topped then it could easily to go the high 30s.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Refiners, crack spread
I can't seem to find a good source for the crack spread. So I decided to plot my own.
First a look at USO, a proxy for oil.
Notice that oil is back at the March levels, with a peak in July.
Now a look at UGA, a proxy for gasoline.
We are again, back to the March levels, with a peak in July.
Here is the chart of the UGA (proxy for gasoline) - USO (proxy for oil), which should be a good approximate for the difference in gasoline and crude oil (aka the crack spread).
You can see the pain the refiners were taking as oil peaked in July. However, we are now back to March levels with momentum to the upside. Can the refiners recover from the big hit they took during the last few months?
Now a look at the refiners, which have still been struggling.
WNR is right at a recent high, which could act support. It is also right above the 20 and 50 DMA. This can provide a great buying opportunity if refiners come into favor.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 7.8 Very Nice.
TSO is much weaker. It is testing a recent lower low. If you buy here, at least the stop will be easy to set.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.7 Nice.
FTO is still consolidating and trying to form some support. This is very healthy.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.1 Nice.
First a look at USO, a proxy for oil.
Notice that oil is back at the March levels, with a peak in July.
Now a look at UGA, a proxy for gasoline.
We are again, back to the March levels, with a peak in July.
Here is the chart of the UGA (proxy for gasoline) - USO (proxy for oil), which should be a good approximate for the difference in gasoline and crude oil (aka the crack spread).
You can see the pain the refiners were taking as oil peaked in July. However, we are now back to March levels with momentum to the upside. Can the refiners recover from the big hit they took during the last few months?
Now a look at the refiners, which have still been struggling.
WNR is right at a recent high, which could act support. It is also right above the 20 and 50 DMA. This can provide a great buying opportunity if refiners come into favor.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 7.8 Very Nice.
TSO is much weaker. It is testing a recent lower low. If you buy here, at least the stop will be easy to set.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.7 Nice.
FTO is still consolidating and trying to form some support. This is very healthy.
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.1 Nice.
Exchanges - Could they be bottoming?
NYX broke below support, will this sucker in a few shorts and then rip higher? I would wait and find out before getting in.
ICE has pulled back in between the 20 and 50 DMA, its do or die from here. I am tempted to buy with a 90 stop. Cup and handle? Only if the handle doesn't break!
CME is still in very tight range, easy to buy at the bottom and exit if it breaks. If CME does not gain any support here, time will wear it down to the downside.
ICE has pulled back in between the 20 and 50 DMA, its do or die from here. I am tempted to buy with a 90 stop. Cup and handle? Only if the handle doesn't break!
CME is still in very tight range, easy to buy at the bottom and exit if it breaks. If CME does not gain any support here, time will wear it down to the downside.
Oil, temporary stabilization/rally?
The stocks I mention in my previous post rallied very significantly today. MEE, JRCC, POT, IPI, MOS, ACI, BTU. There maybe be 1-2 days of more rallying, but I would keep the stops tight.
LULU
Earnings Sept 11, EPS exp: 0.13, Previous Year 0.07
If LULU wants to bottom like my other retail picks SHLD and MW, then it has to react well to earnings. I have no idea if the expectations are too high, too low, or if it is 'good enough' that they come close like many other retailers. I will rely upon the stocks reaction to tell me how investors feel about the earnings. If the slow down in the economy is affecting sales, then their whole expansion of stores strategy could be a huge burden.
UPDATE: LULU is currently +10%
Short Percent of Float 74.35 %
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 16.2
If LULU wants to bottom like my other retail picks SHLD and MW, then it has to react well to earnings. I have no idea if the expectations are too high, too low, or if it is 'good enough' that they come close like many other retailers. I will rely upon the stocks reaction to tell me how investors feel about the earnings. If the slow down in the economy is affecting sales, then their whole expansion of stores strategy could be a huge burden.
UPDATE: LULU is currently +10%
Short Percent of Float 74.35 %
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 16.2
Casinos
I mentioned a few days ago that
WYNN, LVS, MGM
POTENTIAL bottoming, might be shaky.
These stocks have definitely not bottomed. The only one that looks somewhat promising is MGM, but with the other 2 casino/hotel stocks being weak, there is no point being bullish.
WYNN, LVS, MGM
POTENTIAL bottoming, might be shaky.
These stocks have definitely not bottomed. The only one that looks somewhat promising is MGM, but with the other 2 casino/hotel stocks being weak, there is no point being bullish.
Oil
I am seeing news about OPEC cutting production. If this results in a significant bounce in crude (currently +1.3%) then this could give significant bounce to coal and ag stocks. Look to MEE, JRCC, POT, IPI, MOS, ACI, BTU for any bounce. But be careful, rises in crude have been know to fail miserably.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSLA55582920080910
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSLA55582920080910
Monday, September 8, 2008
Bullish
Here are a few stocks/sectors that I am bullish on. Check out my bearish ideas if you want to short.
NYX, ICE, CME
Potential bottoms forming.
NYX has been the weakest by far, this might be due to the weakening fundamentals as they lost customers to NDAQ. But if it has bottom, the potential gain is greatest here. I would be quick with the profit taking.
Very nice double bottom, with the second one being nice and round. You should be able to buy this with any pullback. I could easily see this run up another 10-20 points.
Consolidating in a range, intraday trades to the upside should work until it shows more strength. Then it can be held for longer periods.
SHLD, MW, UA, LULU?
This looks like it has bottomed. A pullback to the 50 DMA would be a great entry. Too slow of a mover for me, but the upside potential is huge.
Popped above the 200 DMA, pullbacks should be bought.
Hitting the 200 DMA. Pullbacks could be bought, forward PE seems a bit high.
Now here is a stock with potential. It has not had any sort of rally, it has a forward PE of 18 and a PEG of 0.7, it could POTENTIALLY be forming a bottom right here. What will deteremine this? Earnings! Sept 11. Potential risky buy right here in the hopes of a bottom, if you time it right intraday and buy smart, you can set stop loss to minimual or 0 loss and hope for a run up.
WYNN, LVS, MGM
POTENTIAL bottoming, might be shaky.
Now that I look at it, it kinda looks like a H&S forming, but if casinos have bottomed support at 90 should hold.
Support at 40 should hold if this has bottomed.
Consolidation before taking off?
HANS
With a series of downgrades, this is beginning to look interesting. But it needs to show a bounce followed by consolidation before you contemplate entry.
WNR, TSO, FTO
Very nice round, double bottom. This thing might sky rocket soon.
Looks like its ready to break out.
Consolidation phase done?
NYX, ICE, CME
Potential bottoms forming.
NYX has been the weakest by far, this might be due to the weakening fundamentals as they lost customers to NDAQ. But if it has bottom, the potential gain is greatest here. I would be quick with the profit taking.
Very nice double bottom, with the second one being nice and round. You should be able to buy this with any pullback. I could easily see this run up another 10-20 points.
Consolidating in a range, intraday trades to the upside should work until it shows more strength. Then it can be held for longer periods.
SHLD, MW, UA, LULU?
This looks like it has bottomed. A pullback to the 50 DMA would be a great entry. Too slow of a mover for me, but the upside potential is huge.
Popped above the 200 DMA, pullbacks should be bought.
Hitting the 200 DMA. Pullbacks could be bought, forward PE seems a bit high.
Now here is a stock with potential. It has not had any sort of rally, it has a forward PE of 18 and a PEG of 0.7, it could POTENTIALLY be forming a bottom right here. What will deteremine this? Earnings! Sept 11. Potential risky buy right here in the hopes of a bottom, if you time it right intraday and buy smart, you can set stop loss to minimual or 0 loss and hope for a run up.
WYNN, LVS, MGM
POTENTIAL bottoming, might be shaky.
Now that I look at it, it kinda looks like a H&S forming, but if casinos have bottomed support at 90 should hold.
Support at 40 should hold if this has bottomed.
Consolidation before taking off?
HANS
With a series of downgrades, this is beginning to look interesting. But it needs to show a bounce followed by consolidation before you contemplate entry.
WNR, TSO, FTO
Very nice round, double bottom. This thing might sky rocket soon.
Looks like its ready to break out.
Consolidation phase done?
Bearish
Here is a list of stocks/sectors that I am bearish on, I don't give any timing on these stocks. In fact most have fallen so much that it would be hard to short them here except for intraday trades.
POT
Obviously a broken stock. However, at these levels I would be very cautious.
Ideally you want people to buy this up to the 180-190 range and start feeling comfortable with it as a long. Then you catch it for the next move down. But who knows if this will happen. I am too scared to short POT intraday since it can have massive rallies. I would rather play this with quick long trades intraday after it bottoms or starts to rally. Also the projected forward earnings of this stock is monsterous (if they are actually valid), but on the other hand, they have also had problems with miners striking (which makes me even more confused).
MON
MON is, in my opinion, the best agriculture stock to short. Its forward PE is huge compared to POT and MOS, and itis almost about to break a huge H&S formation (can be easily seen on weekly chart). I would be comfortable short his with future rallies.
IPI
At an all time low, I just hate the jumpy moves in this stock intraday. Every time I mess with it I get burned.
FSLR
FSLR is breaking down very nicely. The only trouble with shorting this stock is that you have 'analysts' recommending it every time it falls a bit. But I am guessin that people wont give a shit once it starts costing them money. Any retracement up to the 240-250 level would be a great short, but I don't think it gets there.
ENER
This stock has topped!
I could see this puppy going back all the way to 35.
CF
This stock has topped.
WLT, CLF
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Two coal stocks that refused to fall with the rest have now succumb to pressure.
WLT scares me a bit since it could be a potential buyout candidate. I would only short it intraday.
CLF already agreed to buy ANR so there shouldn't be much risk there. I would wait for a rally into 90 area to establish a medium term short, or short this intraday.
FSYS
This stock has POTENTIALLY topped.
Somewhat risky play as this could easily be a pullback before the next run up. If you get caught in the red on this stock, exit fast. Otherwise, this stock can easily come down to 40.
POT
Obviously a broken stock. However, at these levels I would be very cautious.
Ideally you want people to buy this up to the 180-190 range and start feeling comfortable with it as a long. Then you catch it for the next move down. But who knows if this will happen. I am too scared to short POT intraday since it can have massive rallies. I would rather play this with quick long trades intraday after it bottoms or starts to rally. Also the projected forward earnings of this stock is monsterous (if they are actually valid), but on the other hand, they have also had problems with miners striking (which makes me even more confused).
MON
MON is, in my opinion, the best agriculture stock to short. Its forward PE is huge compared to POT and MOS, and itis almost about to break a huge H&S formation (can be easily seen on weekly chart). I would be comfortable short his with future rallies.
IPI
At an all time low, I just hate the jumpy moves in this stock intraday. Every time I mess with it I get burned.
FSLR
FSLR is breaking down very nicely. The only trouble with shorting this stock is that you have 'analysts' recommending it every time it falls a bit. But I am guessin that people wont give a shit once it starts costing them money. Any retracement up to the 240-250 level would be a great short, but I don't think it gets there.
ENER
This stock has topped!
I could see this puppy going back all the way to 35.
CF
This stock has topped.
WLT, CLF
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Two coal stocks that refused to fall with the rest have now succumb to pressure.
WLT scares me a bit since it could be a potential buyout candidate. I would only short it intraday.
CLF already agreed to buy ANR so there shouldn't be much risk there. I would wait for a rally into 90 area to establish a medium term short, or short this intraday.
FSYS
This stock has POTENTIALLY topped.
Somewhat risky play as this could easily be a pullback before the next run up. If you get caught in the red on this stock, exit fast. Otherwise, this stock can easily come down to 40.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
ENER top
I believe ENER has topped at 83ish. Look for a return to 50s.
A closer look at the 10 min shows the change in tide.
A closer look at the 10 min shows the change in tide.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)