Monday, September 8, 2008

Bearish

Here is a list of stocks/sectors that I am bearish on, I don't give any timing on these stocks. In fact most have fallen so much that it would be hard to short them here except for intraday trades.

POT

Obviously a broken stock. However, at these levels I would be very cautious.



Ideally you want people to buy this up to the 180-190 range and start feeling comfortable with it as a long. Then you catch it for the next move down. But who knows if this will happen. I am too scared to short POT intraday since it can have massive rallies. I would rather play this with quick long trades intraday after it bottoms or starts to rally. Also the projected forward earnings of this stock is monsterous (if they are actually valid), but on the other hand, they have also had problems with miners striking (which makes me even more confused).


MON


MON is, in my opinion, the best agriculture stock to short. Its forward PE is huge compared to POT and MOS, and itis almost about to break a huge H&S formation (can be easily seen on weekly chart). I would be comfortable short his with future rallies.

IPI
At an all time low, I just hate the jumpy moves in this stock intraday. Every time I mess with it I get burned.



FSLR


FSLR is breaking down very nicely. The only trouble with shorting this stock is that you have 'analysts' recommending it every time it falls a bit. But I am guessin that people wont give a shit once it starts costing them money. Any retracement up to the 240-250 level would be a great short, but I don't think it gets there.

ENER
This stock has topped!



I could see this puppy going back all the way to 35.

CF
This stock has topped.



WLT, CLF
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Two coal stocks that refused to fall with the rest have now succumb to pressure.


WLT scares me a bit since it could be a potential buyout candidate. I would only short it intraday.


CLF already agreed to buy ANR so there shouldn't be much risk there. I would wait for a rally into 90 area to establish a medium term short, or short this intraday.

FSYS
This stock has POTENTIALLY topped.


Somewhat risky play as this could easily be a pullback before the next run up. If you get caught in the red on this stock, exit fast. Otherwise, this stock can easily come down to 40.