Thursday, September 18, 2008

Crazy Day

The news today changes everything. SPY has room to run to 125 QQQQ can run up to 44. But, I expect it to be very choppy. The action in MS, GS, XLF was crazy. The lesson I learned today was to NOT chase anything. Nothing in this market is really worth chasing. Financials will have sell offs if you want to buy in. Coals will have dips before buyers are found. I almost never play the financials, and when I do play I use SKF and UYG. If I do decide to play financials I will need to greatly decrease my positions due to this volatility. This way you can buy more on dips. I highly recommend people check out Fly's list of heavily shorted financials here. Also, take a look at some home builders. I made my list HOV, LEN, MTH, PHM, CTX, DHI, GFA, KBH, TOL. MTH has 25 million shares short, with today's volume being 2 million. It is very close to a 52 week high. Can anyone say short squeeeeeze? HOV also has a huge short interest and looks like it has bottomed. GHL has almost 8 million shares short, with average volume are .4 million.

The sad thing is that all these stock will probably gap up tomorrow, leaving me confused and nervous about what to do. I guess we have to take what we got!

Did you guys see LULU today? Its so sad that I sold this stock, it has gone from 18 to 24 in such little time. I will try and buy it on any pullback.

FSYS is interesting for a long, but I would be careful with that one.

TSO is looking good. But oil is so tricky to play. Crack spreads look like they are poised to move higher.