Monday, September 22, 2008

Where is the market headed?

I said in a previous post:

I am.
Short Term (few days): Bearish

Medium Term (few weeks): Bullish/Neutral

Long Term (few months): Bearish

The short term seems like it will pan out. People are starting to doubt whether the government will bail the banks out, and even if they do, who is going to save this economy, unemployment, debt etc. But as for the medium term and long term, those are too complicated for me to be confident about. Who knows what this market is going to bring.

But as of now, I anticipate:

lower crude
lower commodities ex-gold
lower enthusiasm for stocks
increased choppiness
quicker trades, take the profits while you have them, today was great evidence of that

There is also one other comment I would like to make. This is a bear market. I don't think bear markets usually last... ahhh the rest of this got cut off. I think what I was trying to say was that bear markets do not usually end this quickly and this weak (need to be -30% from the highs). So expect more downside along with quick bear market rallies.