Current Holdings

Long: DRYS, STP, FRE, TEX
Short: FWLT, ISRG

Gold

FYI, I have dumped gold. Although it may eventually trend upward, it has lost all of its strength. Fed will stop raising this week or next time. I still have some DBA, but I will look to be getting out of that as well.

AUY, more gold

Here is another gold miner company that seems to be at a good buying point, assuming the trend continues.



You can manage your risk very easily by placing a stop below 14. Thats 0.30-0.40 potential loss for a 4.00 potential gain. Nice risk/reward.

ABX - Gold Recovery?

Take a look at ABX, a gold miner.



I will list the pros and cons about this stock chart.

PROS

• MACD turning bullish
• Trend is up, stock is in the lows of trend (good entry)
• Decreasing volume on pullback (consolidation)
  

CONS

• Right now it is testing the trendline, going above and below it, but it fails to provide solid support.

• Second MACD green bar is lower than the first, troubling
  
• Williams %R refuses to leave undersold area
  

Right now I own some ABX, probably a little too much for all the concerns I have. I will be a buyer if the CONS are eliminated in the next few trading days.

VIX

Is at a critical point in its trendline.

Coal

Coal is zoom zoom zoooming. Which stocks have more to run?

ACI

Ascending triangle, breakout above 55 would give it new all time highs. Need increase in volume!

ANR

Broke out above the 40 level, I would wait for a test of the 20 DMA before getting in.

BUCY

Testing strong resistance at 105. Breakout with high volume will lead to new highs.

PCL

This one just broke into new highs. The great thing about this stock is that it has been going sideways for a few days now and is very close to its 20 DMA. Either a pullback to 55 would make an attractive buy or blast to new highs on higher volume.

JRCC

Moving sideways right at the new highs. Previous patterns suggest that there will be a pullback before we proceed to new highs. A pullback to 20 DMA or even lower would provide ideal entry.

PCX

This has run up straight for a month and is very extended. There is no support and no resistance so I have no clue what to do without a pullback to the 20 DMA.

TNH breakout

POT, MON, MOS, TRA and a lot of other ag stocks are at our near their all time highs, TNH has some catching up to do.



Disclosure, I own the shares.

China

Lets look at a few china stocks.

ACH


Aluminum has had a huge run last week. The stock is up something like 30% in the week. Since it is at a round number resistance of 50, I would be waiting for a pullback to the $45 area to buy some.

CHL


This is now trading in a range between 70 and 80. I would be a buyer at 70 with a close stop at 69. If this stock manages to break out of 80 there could be a temporary pullback before it continues its move up.

CMED


CMED is in a very nice uptrend with the bottom trend line being the 100 DMA. Right now it is trading at the higher end of the trend, so a pull back to the 100 DMA would provide a great entry point, around 48.

PTR


PTR is in a pretty bad downtrend. It is down about 50% from its highs and is trading within the 125 and 160 range. More consolidation is needed for this stock to form a base. I would be a buyer at 140 or at a breakout of 160.

Earnings

Before open
02/20/2008, RIG Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 2.58 vs 2.93, Revenue: 2190.13 vs 1186.0
02/20/2008, ANW Estimate for 03/2008 EPS: 0.3 vs 0.16, Revenue: 540.5 vs 214.0
02/20/2008, STP Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.35 vs 0.2, Revenue: 414.28 vs 218.0
02/20/2008, GRMN Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 1.11 vs 0.82, Revenue: 1033.52 vs 611.0

After close
02/20/2008, PRGN Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.25 vs 0.0, Revenue: 23.28 vs 0.0
02/20/2008, TEX Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 1.4 vs 0.97, Revenue: 2356.81 vs 2030.0
02/20/2008, AEM Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.24 vs 0.34, Revenue: 127.5 vs 145.0
02/20/2008, OII Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.82 vs 0.54, Revenue: 448.09 vs 342.0

Tomorrow - before open
02/21/2008, ABX Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.54 vs 0.11, Revenue: 2007.35 vs 1354.0
02/21/2008, NM Estimate for 12/2007 EPS: 0.29 vs -0.09, Revenue: 164.97 vs 53.0

EWZ, PSQ update

This combination has continued to work.



4.5% gain in 10 days.
9% gain in 1 month.
9 % gain in 4 months.